Ukraine Daily Summary - Saturday, October 15

Russian troops to arrive in Belarus in coming days -- Belarus began covert mobilization 'to man up existing combat units' -- Belarus provides over 60 tanks, dozens of vehicles to Russia -- Russia used two-thirds of high-precision missiles it had on Feb. 24 -- Russian forces prevent civilians from evacuating occupied territories -- and more

Ukraine Daily

Saturday, October 15

Russia’s war against Ukraine

KI-Inline_15-10-22

The aftermath of a Russian attack on a residential building in Sviatohirsk, Donetsk Oblast on Oct. 9, 2022. (Carl Court/Getty Images)

Belarusian media: Belarus began covert mobilization ‘to man up existing combat units.’ Dictator Alexander Lukashenko has started to conduct small-scale covert mobilization to “man up the existing combat units,” according to independent Belarusian publication Nasha Niva. “It will go under the guise of a combat capability test,” Nasha Niva writes, citing several unnamed sources. “At the first stage, it will not affect large cities – the rural population will be mobilized first.”

Belarus provides over 60 tanks, dozens of vehicles to Russia. Belarusian watchdog Belarusian Hajun reported that, over the past week, Belarus has transported at least 67 T-72 tanks and 28 Ural military trucks from its Mahilou region to Russia.

Belarusian state-controlled media: Russian troops to arrive in Belarus ‘in coming days.’ The transfer is allegedly intended to “protect the country’s border and reduce military activity in nearby areas,” Deputy Chief of Belarus’ General Staff Viktor Tumar told Belarusian state-controlled media Belta on Oct. 14. On Oct. 10, Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin agreed to create a joint military command.

Putin says 16,000 mobilized reservists already in Ukraine. Russian dictator Vladimir Putin told reporters on Oct. 14 at a summit in Kazakhstan that out of the 300,000 reservists Russia’s Defense Ministry aimed to mobilize, 200,000 had already been registered, AP reports.

ISW: Putin claims partial mobilization to end soon as fall conscription set to begin. The Institute for the Study of War said in its latest update that Russian dictator Vladimir Putin’s statement to reporters that mobilization will end soon was likely an attempt “to make a virtue of necessity,” as Putin “likely needs to pause or end his partial mobilization to free up bureaucratic resources for conscription.”

UK intelligence: Russia makes progress in central Donbas, but ‘very slowly.’ Over the last three days, Russian troops “have made tactical advances” towards the center of Bakhmut in Donetsk Oblast – they advanced into villages Opytine and Ivanhrad to the south of the town, the U.K. Defense Ministry reported on Oct. 14. It’s happening “very slowly” and mostly due to successful operations of Russian mercenary organization Wagner Group, reads the report.

Danilov: Russia used two-thirds of high-precision missiles it had on Feb. 24. There’s only 25-28% of the high-precision missiles left out of the total amount Russia had before its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council Oleksii Danilov told NV, referring to Ukraine’s intelligence data. According to Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov, Russia only 609 high-precision missiles left, having used 1,235 out of 1,844 Iskander, Kalibr, and air-launched cruise missiles since it started its all-out invasion in February.

Podolyak: Ukraine will find solution to keep Starlink systems operating. Earlier on Oct. 14, Elon Musk’s SpaceX sent a letter to the Pentagon saying it can no longer continue to fund the Starlink service for Ukraine. Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor to the head of Ukraine’s Presidential Office, said he expects that Starlink will “provide stable connection by the end of negotiations.” Podolyak added that “Elon Musk helped us survive the most critical moments of the war.” So far, roughly 20,000 Starlink satellite units have been donated to Ukraine.

Pentagon ‘assessing options’ to keep Ukraine connected to Starlink satellites. A senior defense official said the U.S. was assessing its options and trying to do what it can “to help keep these satcoms for the Ukrainian forces,” according to a U.S. Defense Department news release.

Prosecutor General’s Office: Russia committed 40,040 crimes of aggression, war crimes against Ukraine. Most Russian crimes in Ukraine were “breaking the laws and customs of war,” the Prosecutor General’s Office reported on Oct. 14, giving a precise number of the war crimes and crimes of aggression – 40,040. More than 600 suspects allegedly responsible for those crimes are the Russian soldiers and the country’s political leadership, according to the report.

Mayor: Russian forces prevent civilians from evacuating occupied territories. Melitopol Mayor Ivan Fedorov said in a briefing on Oct. 14 that over 4,000 people are stuck at a checkpoint at Vasylivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, awaiting entry into Ukrainian-controlled territory. Fedorov noted that Russian forces permit no more than 20 to 30 cars to leave Russian-occupied territory through the checkpoint per day. On Oct. 8, Fedorov reported that over 6,000 civilians were stuck at the checkpoint for 10 days.

General Staff: Russia increases number of troops at Zaporizhzhia plant. Russian forces are increasing their presence at the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in occupied Enerhodar, Ukraine’s General Staff reported on Oct. 14. According to it, Russia uses the plant’s territory as a base for their personnel because the object is not under fire by Ukrainian forces.

The Insider: Kremlin-linked officers seek asylum in France. A member of Russia’s Security Service (FSB) and a member of the Russian mercenary organization Wagner have requested asylum in France, reports The Insider. Testimonies provided by both individuals will reportedly shed light on Russia’s war crimes in Ukraine.

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Defense minister: ‘The age of Ukraine-centrism has begun.’ The Kyiv Independent attended a meeting of journalists with Oleksii Reznikov, Ukraine’s defense minister, after several intense days of closed-door meetings at the NATO headquarters.

Photo: Dursun Aydemir/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images

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Ukraine war latest: Russia slowly advances in Donetsk Oblast as escalation continues in Belarus. Lukashenko reportedly begins covert mobilization in Belarus and Zelensky vows victory as Ukraine celebrates Defender’s Day in our daily war update.

Photo: Yasuyoshi Chiba/AFP via Getty Images

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The human cost of Russia’s war

Russia’s attacks injure 8 in Kharkiv Oblast, 6 in Donetsk Oblast. In the past 24 hours, Russian forces have hit several settlements in Kharkiv Oblast, injuring eight people, including two 16-year-old boys, Oleh Syniehubov, the oblast governor, reported on Oct. 14. Russia’s attacks wounded six civilians in Donetsk Oblast; four more people killed by Russian troops during the occupation were found in liberated Lyman and Yakovlivka, according to the oblast governor, Pavlo Kyrylenko.

General Staff: Russia has lost 64,300 troops in Ukraine since Feb. 24. Ukraine’s General Staff reported on Sept. 29 that Russia had also lost 2,521 tanks, 5,172 armored fighting vehicles, 1,566 artillery systems, 362 multiple launch rocket systems, 186 air defense systems, 240 helicopters, 268 airplanes, 1,199 drones, and 16 boats.

International response

Biden announces $725 million in military aid to Ukraine. U.S. President Joe Biden authorized the assistance in a memorandum on Oct. 14. The package is expected to include munitions and vehicles.

Reznikov: Spain to send Ukraine 4 air defense systems Hawk. Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov said Spain would provide Ukraine with four Hawk air defense systems; he thanked his Spanish counterpart Margarita Robles for that. “There are (even) more Hawks on the way,” Reznikov said. “Today air defense is a priority not only for Ukraine but for all of Europe.”

Saudi Arabia to provide $400 million in humanitarian aid to Ukraine. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke on the phone on Oct. 14, during which the two discussed the $400 million in humanitarian aid Saudi Arabia will provide to Ukraine, Saudi state news agency SPA reported.

Reuters: EU ministers to discuss sanctions related to Russia’s use of Iranian drones. The European Union foreign ministers will consider future sanctions on Iran after it allegedly supplied Russia with kamikaze Shahed-136 drones for its war in Ukraine, Reuters reports, citing two unnamed diplomats. The ministers will discuss the issue on Oct. 17, according to Reuters.

Poll: Most Western countries continue to support sanctions against Russia. According to the YouGov-Cambridge globalism project conducted between Aug. 24 and Sept. 22, countries with the highest support for expanded sanctions against Russia due to its war in Ukraine were the U.S., U.K., Canada, Poland, Sweden, Australia, and Denmark. Turkey, Egypt, Hungary, and Indonesia had the lowest support for expanded sanctions.

ICRC condemns lack of access to POWs during Russia’s war. In a statement on Oct. 14, the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) said it has been barred access from thousands of prisoners of war in Ukraine since the start of Russia’s full-scale war. According to the ICRC, this constitutes a breach of the Geneva Convention. The ICRC has reportedly been prepared to visit Olenivka, Donetsk Oblast, where Ukrainian prisoners of war were killed by an explosion on July 29. “We cannot access by force a place of detention or internment where we have not been admitted,” the ICRC.

In other news

Ukrainian finance minister to chair World Bank, IMF Board of Governors in 2023. Ukrainian Finance Minister Serhii Marchenko’s unanimous election is the first since Ukraine’s 30-year membership in the World Bank and the IMF.

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