陈冠中的《建丰二年》虚虚实实，真真假假。朦朦胧胧之间，中国历史确似有许多变与不变。以四平之战为起始点，构想中国未来，也可反窥今日中国肇造之机缘。
中国历史历来是一个大题目，所涉之多，跨越之广，世所罕见。此外，由于中共篡改历史，大量虚假叙事充斥于史界，更增加烦恼。对于很多像我一样的普通人，历史学习大概是一个过程，一种求索——先是接受官修史书的教育，俟年岁稍长，击节推敲，发现疑窦，再逐步推翻，重塑史观，直到掘出近百年来最血腥的记录，直觉脊背发冷，五内郁结，如坠冰窖。而即便是对中国历史的脉络有了浅显的理解，面对历史内部的鬼影森森、枝节交错，也不能不提心吊胆。
中国近现代史向来是怨望之所集。民族主义者愤恨于中国所受的欺凌，反共的人切齿于红色大屠杀，汉族中心主义者不满“胡元制主”，渴望自由的人更痛切地讨论中国何以不能建立民主。中西学人的研究积秩成山，难以尽述，此时畅想平行历史，倒是能在玩笑之中窥见一些历史的面目。
小说中自四平之战为分野，构建乌有史。孙立人与林彪作生死战，破敌之后追亡逐北无复踌躇，直把彪部歼灭，止有零散部队撤过黑龙江。东北军既逐，中共左臂既断，随后国军于三大战役中分别剿灭荣臻部、陈粟部、刘邓部，如银瓶泻水，直至将中共逐到蒙古大漠方才班师。其后三七五减租、韩战、经济起飞进行如仪。老总统蒋中正连任五届死于任上。过渡三年后，政权归于蒋少主经国(字建丰)。在国民党略微温和的威权统治之下，依然有层出不穷的反抗者和自我流亡者——魏京生、张东荪、林昭、遇罗克……在平行世界继续坚持民主自由的抗争。
中国在国民党治下，提前实现经济起飞，避免了红色盈野的浩劫，似乎中华复兴，其道大光。但是内部反抗不断，派系犹存，腐败滋炽。小说将结局定格在1979年12月10日，在另一个世界中，这一天发生了美丽岛事件，台湾民主化运动如火如荼，终于功成。小说中，志士聚会被情治部门拿下，似乎也昭示着另一个开端。在经历了漫长的斗争史以后，建丰少主对独裁产生了质疑。无尽的刑求和法外法让他疲惫，也让他担心国家未来。宪政民主的声浪一波一波涌来，民主墙遍地开花，党外组党此伏彼起。建丰已经走到关键的岔路口。是出动坦克血洗北平，还是去职还乡归政于民，就在于执柄者的一念之间。
从另一个世界看，在美丽岛事件、林宅血案、江南案等重大事件之后，疲惫的蒋经国终于放弃了权力，此时去美丽岛事件已有八年，其间有无数冲突与波折。但是对于大权在握的统治者，已堪称难能可贵。凡是尝过权力滋味的人，都知道权力有多么甜美，多么必要，多么欲罢不能。历史上为权力斗争而死的人不胜枚举，林彪等人也早已总结出权力运行第一定律“有权力就有一切，没有权力就失去一切”。民主化进程少不了民众凝聚力量，对威权的压迫发起挑战，但是统治者则决定着更关键的变量——是以相对和平的方式放权(同时还要压制精英内部的鹰派，防止集团分裂)，还是动员自己的力量与民众先锋决斗。在现代国家，暴力从民众手中转移，凝聚到国家的暴力机关手中。在暴力机关仍然愿意效忠政权并能有效组织时，民众与高度专业化的暴力机构作战，其胜算极微。海峡两岸，两个政权的精英选择了不同的道路，自兹远隔。
说起海峡另一边，又是一部伤心史。中共在政权遭遇挑战(以及具有挑战能力的势力)时的反应几乎是动物性的。权力的强度和渗透性持续增加，一切可能威胁政权的组织和思想资源全部被摧毁或渗透。此外，中国在社会思想资源上被破坏得最为严重。虚假消息、政治宣传、营造叙事等方式构建出Matrix。此外，中共还采用“恶意愚蠢”的战术，将言论和行为等方面的自由度缩减到了近乎荒诞的地步，在社会红线和政权的安全线之间留存极大的空间。很多不满的人以跨越红线而自得，实际上自己却离反抗差得远。这种战术转移不满者的注意力，推高了反抗所需的勇气和成本，反而保护了自己。 但是社会精神风貌被破坏，则人们沦于自害，活力渐失，乃至自暴自弃、末日狂欢。诸多社会乱象，乃至官僚系统自身素质的下降，不能说与之无关。
所谓乌有史，或者架空历史，本质上是再现历史未曾实现的可能性。我不相信历史决定论。历史有着相对固定的结构和力量，但是其中充满偶然，有些近乎随机的小事也能在社会结构中产生不对称的影响力，从而改变宏观历史。历史存在于人们心中，唯一能够局限历史可能性的就是叙事(或者汉娜·阿伦特定义下的“意识形态”)。物理法则之下，人所能做的事情几乎是无穷的，而叙事则缩减了行事的范围。
《建丰二年》和《高堡奇人》都可视为对叙事的探讨。《建丰二年》以近乎戏说的态度，呈现中国发展路径的不同面向，对中共的历史叙事即是嘲讽。《高堡奇人》则更近一步明确地提出，历史在于叙事，叙事在于人心。后者中的人物行迹诡秘，内心炫惑，叙事中也潜滋暗长着现实逻辑的矛盾，如同Matrix里的Bug。既然可能性诸多，历史不只一重，那么可能存在的现实便也就不止一重。历史仿佛变成了高维复杂的弹性空间，有无数的拓扑结构，供思想遨游。
人类的集体行动总是以叙事作为动员的基础，如若旧叙事崩解，建立在其上的权力结构也就烟消云散。从这个意义上说，乌有史是一种解构，在堂皇的“合法性”面前摆出历史的曲折与随机。而在畅想的过程中，乌有史又是一种建构，在思维空间构造出可能的路径，并且可能关照于现实。
至于生活在叙事中的个人，怎样生活则是一大题目。仁人勇士们在中国大地上追求自由民主；隐者饱食而遨游，泛若不系之舟；求索者如张东荪，为前路探寻，提供思想资源；此外，同流合污者有之，蝇营狗苟者有之，视若不见者有之，迷惘彷徨着有之。有时身在其中，也多有身不由己之处。“人生到处知何似，应似飞鸿踏雪泥。泥上偶然留指爪，鸿飞哪复计东西“。飞鸿被大风拉扯着四处翻飞，普通人在时代热风之下浮沉，也未能幸免。大约在抖擞身上尘土的时候，偶然翻开一部乌有史，发生的、未发生的、无数的心结，也都于此时汇进了另外一个时空，有了一些交代。
中华人民共和国庆丰十一年三月｜中華民國一百一十二年三月｜公元二零二三年三月
高堡浪人
另：本文虽然将台湾（中华民国）与中华人民共和国并列写作，且出现“海峡”等字眼，但是并不认同中华人民共和国政权的“一国一制”主张，对两方的文化关系、政治地位问题、台湾本土性和汉文化、“中国”的定义等问题等也没有表达意见。台湾（中华民国）人民的命运应该由自己决定。愿他们保持来之不易的尊严。
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